Darilaut – Super Typhoon Champi, currently located in the Philippine Sea, is set to approach the eastern coast of Taiwan in the Northwest Pacific.
There are several potential paths for Champi. In one scenario, the powerful typhoon moves generally northwest, passing more than 100 km east of Taiwan before coming very close to Taipei.
In another scenario, the typhoon tracks very close to Taiwan’s east coast before moving northward near Taipei.
Both of these projected paths place Super Typhoon Champi in very close proximity to Taipei. Based on these trajectories, the typhoon would remain over the ocean.
Another possibility is that the typhoon could make landfall in northern Taiwan before turning toward the Kyushu Islands in Japan. Alternatively, after making landfall in northern Taiwan, the system could emerge into the Taiwan Strait and subsequently strike the coast of China.
All of these scenarios suggest a weakening trend for the tropical cyclone as it nears Taiwan.
As of midnight on Wednesday (October 21), Champi was located 816 km southeast of Taipei, or 748 km south of Okinawa Island, Japan.
The tropical cyclone will continue moving toward the waters east of Taiwan.
The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) estimates that the cyclone is more likely to turn northward and cross the East China Sea toward Japan.
The HKO also noted the possibility that the cyclone could move closer to the region surrounding Taiwan and Fujian.
Tropical Cyclone Champi is expected to move toward the waters east of Taiwan over the coming days.
According to the HKO, as of 8:00 PM local time on Wednesday, Super Typhoon Champi was moving in a west-northwesterly direction at a speed of approximately 18 kilometers per hour.
Champi—the 30th typhoon of the season—has reached the intensity of a “Violent Typhoon.” According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the system is moving west-northwest at a speed of 20 km/h (12 knots), with a central pressure of 900 hPa (hectopascals).
Champi packs maximum sustained winds of 60 meters per second (115 knots) near its center, with peak instantaneous gusts reaching 85 meters per second (165 knots).
The JMA reports that the area experiencing winds of 50 knots or greater extends 280 km (150 nautical miles) to the northeast and 220 km (120 nautical miles) to the southwest. The area with winds of 30 knots or greater spans 650 km (350 nautical miles) to the northeast and 500 km (270 nautical miles) to the southwest.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) notes that maximum significant wave heights have reached 18.3 meters (60 feet).
Over the next 24 hours, the JTWC expects Champi to continue moving northwest. While wind shear will remain low during this period, cooler sea surface temperatures and lower ocean heat content are expected to trigger rapid weakening.
Known in the Philippines as “Rosal”—as designated by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)—the super typhoon has begun moving northwest while situated in the waters east of the northern tip of Luzon.
PAGASA forecasts that Rosal will gradually weaken, likely downgrading to a “typhoon” by Thursday. By Saturday, the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken rapidly, potentially transitioning into a severe tropical storm. (VM)