This quasi-stationary behavior is likely due to a weak steering environment.
The JTWC forecasts that the system (17W) will steadily intensify at a rate roughly consistent with climatological averages over the next 36 hours.
It is expected to gradually move into a more favorable environment—characterized by lower wind shear and stronger upper-level outflow—while undergoing vortex symmetrization.
Rapid Intensification (RI) is expected to occur over a period of 1.5 to 3 days, with an increase in intensity of at least 100 km/h (55 knots), according to the JTWC.
After passing through the Northern Mariana Islands, the system is forecast to strengthen gradually and then reach a steady intensity level just below the super typhoon threshold.
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