Intensity forecasts are heavily influenced by the presence of oceanic eddies and Chan-hom’s interaction with the deep upper-level low-pressure system to the south. According to the JTWC, the storm crossed a cold-core eddy on Monday (August 10), which contributed to a short-term decline in deep convection activity.
The storm is set to cross a much warmer eddy associated with the Kuroshio Current, where sea surface temperatures reach 27–28°C. These conditions have the potential to reinvigorate deep convection.
However, increased wind shear and the entrainment of dry air—driven by a nearby low-pressure center—will likely limit or even prevent the storm from intensifying.
Storm Peilou
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Peilou is moving northeast toward the North Pacific. Peilou—Japan’s 16th typhoon of the season—has a central pressure of 992 hPa.
The JMA reports maximum sustained winds of 23 meters per second (45 knots) near the center, with peak instantaneous gusts reaching 35 meters per second (65 knots).
The JMA notes that the area of strong winds (30 knots or greater) extends 390 km (210 NM) to the southeast and 220 km (120 NM) to the northwest.
The JTWC reports a maximum significant wave height of 4.6 meters (15 feet).
The JTWC forecasts that Peilou will continue its northeastward track, embedded within the southwest monsoon flow on the eastern periphery of a broad cyclonic circulation located to the west.
