Typhoon Nolo's Long Path: Moving from the Eastern Pacific Toward Southern Japan in the Northwest Pacific

Darilaut – As of early Sunday (Oct 4), Typhoon Nolo is located west-northwest of Hawaii in the Central Pacific Ocean.

Nolo began developing on September 14 as a tropical depression west of Mexico (in the Eastern Pacific) and generally moved westward. It subsequently approached Hawaii, passing within 300 km south of Hilo.

Now situated in the Central Pacific, Nolo lies west-northwest of Hawaii. According to the Zoom.earth tracking map, the storm has traveled approximately 6,600 km from its origin west of Mexico to its current position west of Hawaii.

Typhoon Nolo is generally expected to move west-northwest from the Central Pacific toward southern Japan in the Northwest Pacific.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) stated that Nolo may be experiencing a brief pause in its intensification phase. The storm exhibits a fairly symmetrical convective pattern, with cloud-top temperatures reaching -68°C in the southern eyewall and an eye temperature of approximately 14°C.

Nolo's intensity is currently holding steady at 110 mph (95 knots). The storm is moving faster than anticipated, currently heading west (265 degrees) at a speed of 15 mph (12 knots).

A strengthening high-pressure ridge to the north is expected to cause Nolo to accelerate its westward movement, potentially reaching a forward speed of around 25 mph (20 knots) by day four, according to the CPHC.

Track models show a very tight clustering for the next three days, indicating a high level of confidence in that portion of the forecast. Nolo is expected to be located west of the International Date Line by the 36-hour mark.

There is greater-than-usual variation in model outputs for days 4 and 5, particularly regarding Nolo's potential interaction with a weather disturbance currently near the Marshall Islands (tropical cyclone seed 94W) and a longwave trough expected to move east of Japan.

The NHC forecast leans toward models at the southern end of the prediction range, indicating a continued westward track that closely aligns with previous predictions.

Nolo is likely to intensify further as it moves across waters with sea surface temperatures around 28°C and deep-layer wind shear becomes negligible.

On October 3, Nolo re-intensified into a Category 2 storm and could reach peak Category 4 intensity within approximately 36 hours, or possibly sooner.

The CPHC describes this as a dangerous system. Potential hazards include strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, and rough seas.

According to Science.nasa.gov, hurricanes Polo and Nolo have brought destructive impacts to land amidst an active season in the northeast and central Pacific.

The 2026 tropical cyclone season in the northeast and central Pacific basin has been busy. As of September 28, the number of named storms in the region had risen to 20, nine of which reached hurricane strength. For comparison, the 1991–2020 average for that date was 13.5 named storms, including 7.4 hurricanes.

Storms occurring near Hawaii this season have once again caused major flooding on the islands. Although it did not make landfall, Storm Nolo dropped more than 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain on parts of Maui and the Island of Hawaiʻi. News reports indicated that the storm flooded roads, toppled trees, and triggered landslides, yet the Island of Hawaiʻi was spared the more severe impacts caused by Storm Lala in mid-August.

As of September 28, accumulated cyclone energy in the Northeast Pacific was more than double the normal level, according to data from Colorado State University.

Scientists had predicted increased tropical cyclone activity in this ocean basin during the El Niño event that has been underway since June, reports Science.nasa.gov.

Warm waters in the equatorial Pacific and low wind shear in the region—both characteristic patterns of El Niño—fueled the development and intensification of tropical storms.

Typhoon Nolo’s Long Path: Moving from the Eastern Pacific Toward Southern Japan in the Northwest Pacific

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