The JTWC forecasts that Dolphin will maintain a relatively stable intensity throughout the forecast period. Dolphin is expected to weaken slightly over the next 24 hours as an eyewall replacement cycle continues, then maintain an intensity of around 155 km/h (85 knots) for the next 4 days before weakening slightly further.
The JTWC stated that if Dolphin fails to complete its ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, it could accelerate its weakening and compound the negative effects of lower ocean heat content.
The eye and wind field will remain quite large over the next 5 days, bringing impacts across Japan’s entire Ryukyu Islands regardless of the exact position of the storm’s center, the JTWC said.
Uncertainty in the intensity forecast stems from the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle and the resulting fluctuations in intensity.
